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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd