Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
